‘Are We Running Out of Oil?’ (2004 essay revised)
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Oil Factor: Protect Yourself-And Profit-From the Coming Energy Crisis
There is at least one good reason why Peak Oil is incorrect and that is the implicit assumption that geological hydrocarbon resource is constant and finite — not to mention the Malthusian assumption of technological stasis, etc. Nice point — new interest in the abiogenic theory of the origin of carbon-based energies is welcomed.
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How to deal with the coming economic crisis
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- The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself And Profit From The Coming Energy Crisis;
If you can know only one thing about the world, make it the direction of oil prices over the preceding year, and you'll do better in the stock market than almost anyone else following any other indicator, from interest rates to corporate profits. This has been true for the last three decades, and it will remain true throughout the early part of this century — until we kick our oil habit and develop and switch to viable energy alternatives. According to Leeb, if you had sold stocks starting in every time oil went up by 80 percent or more in a year's period putting the money into T-bills , and bought them back when prices rose by less than 20 percent in a year, you'd have avoided the following:.
You'd have been out of the market less than four years out of the 30, but you'd be up 70 times your original investment, compared to only 35 times with a buy-and-hold strategy.
That's doubling your returns, just from this one simple indicator. The price of oil is a crucial, although usually unrecognized, influence on your investments. That's why it's vital that you know about — and prepare for — the coming oil shock. The sad part is that not one person in a thousand will prepare properly.
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